Today is a great reminder for me that we don’t have much time to waste - 2030, and then 2050, are getting closer, with their associated emissions reduction targets. INJECTING BIOMETHANE INTO THE NEW SOUTH WALES GAS NETWORK If you've read this far, curious your thoughts! And shoutout to Philip Duguay for suggesting this book in the first place! And more often than not, it ends up costing alot more. But what if the 6¢ project is far more complex (say, a large hydro project), and statistically more likely to go materially over-budget and over-time than the 7¢ one (say, a solar project)? More often than not, we ignore statistically-proven risk, choose the 6¢ project, and cross our fingers. An option *projected* to cost 6¢/kWh over its lifetime is chosen over one *projected* to cost 7¢, all else being equal (and yes, ¢/kWh itself is a gross oversimplification, but that's not the point here). Why? Because in the #energyplanning world, we tend to do a great job at comparing projects on a theoretical cost basis, and a HORRIBLE job at accounting for risk. Flyvbjerg's summary of the real-world cost overruns of over 16,000 projects - is fascinating, and worth a real read. If we'd thought slower.Ģ) STOP IGNORING RISK. I shudder at the thought of how much more value we could have derived - or cost we could have avoided - if we'd taken the time to do better planning. I think back to the reams of well-intentioned horror stories I've seen over the years - energy efficiency programs that had little to no impact because they were rushed to market without enough thought and market intelligence big energy projects that went way over time/budget, in some cases nearly bankrupting entire utilities well-meaning regulations that were roundly rejected because they over-reached and under-consulted, etc. In essence: Act Fast, yes, but *only* after having taken the time to plan that action properly. This is the book's mantra, and is applicable to so much. But 2 in particular stand out as I ponder how to get the clean energy transition right:ġ) "THINK SLOW, ACT FAST". Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner, which I highly recommend (please read to bottom before jumping to conclusions!). So many great takeaways from HOW BIG THINGS GET DONE by Prof.
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